Add a relative spend trigger: a vendor whose trailing-3-day average is >=2x its prior-14-day median AND >= $10/day over it pages once (dedup, reaction on repeats). Backtest against Vercel Oct 1-10. RULED 2026-10-11: first fire is Oct 8, not the Oct 3-5 originally asked for.
That target assumed Vercel's normal level was ~$12/day; the real bill shows mid-September at $30-36/day, so the 14-day median is $18.78 and the ramp is smaller than it felt. Three independent instruments agree on the series to the cent. Both settings that would have reached Oct 5 were rejected on their merits (receipts fda085d78, faa4d287d), not tuned to fit. Ship with tests.
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bin/refresh-tracker spend-ramp-alert — never typed. Last refreshed
2026-10-14 23:48Z.
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