research · current state · recommendations · 2026-10-07 · Proposed, pending Fede
Status: proposal only. Nothing has been changed. Data: production, last 60 days.
AnswerCurrent stateRecommendationsResearchProductionCamelliaAll seriesSources
1. Keep the 4-touch series (day 1, 2, 7, 14) for new leads. Replies come from touches 1 and 2. Touches 3 and 4 add little but cost nothing.
2. One schedule for both series at every client. Delete Camellia's two overrides (pending Fede).
3. Do not add a day-3 or day-30 touch.
24 automatic series in total; 6 sent nothing in 30 days, 2 ignore quiet hours.
| Series | Who | Default | Camellia | Western Slope | Last 60 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New lead, never answered | New leads | 1/2/7/14 | default | default | Camellia 64 nudges, 7 replies, 6 tours. Western Slope 49 nudges, 14 replies, 6 tours |
| Replied, then quiet | Leads who went silent | 1/2/7/14 (changed today; was day 3, then day 4) | own override, day 3 / day 6 | default | Camellia 4 nudges, Western Slope 7. 0 replies, 0 tours |
| Tour reminders | Booked tours | Day before and shortly before | no override | no override | n/a |
| After a tour or no-show | Toured leads | Nothing, by design (Sept decision) | n/a | ||
| Renewals | Residents | Separate program | |||
Do not add day 3. Do not add day 30. Our replies fall off fast after the second text, and no published study we could find supports a day-3 or day-30 touch for apartment leads. The series we have is already as long as the evidence will carry.
Standard series: +24h, +48h, +7d, +14d. Every lead in the window ran this exact series (no client overrides). Reply = the lead texted or emailed back within 48h of that text.
| Text | Sent | Replied in 48h | Reply rate | Led to a tour | What published research says |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st (+24h) | 49 | 12 | 24% | 3 | Early touches carry most conversions |
| 2nd (+48h) | 31 | 10 | 32% | 1 | Same |
| 3rd (+7d) | 17 | 1 | 6% | 1 | Diminishing returns |
| 4th (+14d) | 12 | 0 | 0% (could be up to ~24%) | 0 | Past the 6-attempt knee |
52 leads got at least one text. 23 of them (44%) replied to at least one. Out of 109 texts sent, no reply was a STOP request. The samples are small, so read the shape, not the decimals.
| Add day 3? | Add day 30? | |
|---|---|---|
| Our data | We have never run it, so no direct number. The slot sits right after the +48h text, which got 32%, then a drop to 6% by +7d. | The +14d text got 0 of 12 replies and +7d got 1 of 17. A 30-day text would sit further out on a line that already points to zero. |
| Benchmark | No day-2-vs-day-3 spacing study found. Best contact strategy found: about 6 calls plus 5 emails, mixed (secondary source). | Nothing found past about 6 to 7 attempts. Leads that need 7 or more attempts convert 45% less (secondary). |
| Opt-out and complaint risk | A third text in three days is the first spot where a few states cap contact at 3 per 24 hours. We would still be under it. Risk rises with each added daily text. No published opt-out rate by frequency found. | Low legal risk, but an old lead who forgot they asked is the person most likely to complain or hit STOP. |
| Recommendation | No Not supported. If Fede wants to know for sure, run it on a share of new leads for 60 days and compare. | No Expected to get zero or near zero replies. |
| Idea | What we know | Verdict |
|---|---|---|
| Drop the +14d text | 0 replies in 12 sends. But it closes the series and the lead is then marked inactive in the property system. | Optional Keep it as the closer, or send that one by email. |
| Faster first reply | MIT/InsideSales: waiting 30 minutes instead of 5 cuts the odds of reaching a lead about 100 times. We did not measure our own first-reply time in this pass. | Measure first This is probably the biggest lever. |
| Text first | Texts already go first. Email response rates quoted by vendors are lower, but the figures are unsourced. | Already doing it |
| Re-engagement after a reply | 17 leads, 11 texts sent (day 3 then day 4 or 6 after the last reply), 0 replies. Too small to judge, and none of them reached a tour. | Watch After tonight's change, check again in 30 days. |
Most texts go at 8am local, because the quiet-hours hold pushes them to the first allowed slot: 32 of 109 sends, 22% replied. By weekday, Wednesday did best (7 of 16) and Thursday and Sunday worst (1 of 12 each). With samples this small, none of this is a finding. Times are Mountain, approximate.
| Claim | Number | Source | Trust |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reach rate, 5 vs 30 minute response | About 100x odds of contact, 21x of qualifying | MIT/InsideSales study | Primary, B2B leads, not apartments |
| Firms responding to a web lead | 37% within 1 hour, 23% never | HBR | Primary, figures via summary (paywalled) |
| Converted leads reached by attempt 6 | 93% | Velocify study via Cirrus Insight | Secondary |
| Best cadence: 6 calls plus 5 emails | +128% conversions | Same | Secondary |
| Renters expect a reply within a day | 72% | Zillow 2017 | Unverified, from a search snippet |
| SMS vs email response | 45% vs 6% | Repeated by vendors, attributed to Gartner | Unverified, treat as anecdotal |
| AI leasing: more tours | +30% lead-to-tour | Zuma | Vendor marketing |
Not found: published multifamily follow-up-count or tour-conversion data from Knock, Funnel, RentCafe, Entrata, RealPage, NMHC or NAA; opt-out rates by texts per week; any day-2 vs day-3 spacing study.
Aggregates only, no names. Situs Group: 149 leads, 0 series (not live yet).
| Series | Entered | Got 1 or more | Touch 1 | Touch 2 | Touch 3 | Touch 4 | Median day of each |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camellia new | 66 | 22 | 22 | 19 | 12 | 11 | 1 / 2 / 7 / 14 |
| Camellia replied-then-quiet | 36 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 / 6.2 |
| Western Slope new | 85 | 31 | 28 | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 / 2 / 7 / 14 |
| Western Slope replied-then-quiet | 48 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 / 4.1 |
| Series | Touch 1 | Touch 2 | Touch 3 | Touch 4 | Tours after a touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Camellia new | 3 of 22 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 11 | 0 of 10 | 6 |
| Western Slope new | 8 of 24 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 5 | n/a | 6 |
| Replied-then-quiet, both clients | 0 of 6 | 0 | |||
No application followed any touch.
| Outcome | Camellia new | Camellia re-engage | Western Slope new | Western Slope re-engage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Replied before any touch | 39 | 5 | 34 | 6 |
| Replied after a touch | 7 | 0 | 16 | 0 |
| Tour booked or applied | 2 | 15 | 5 | 11 |
| Lead's last message said not to nudge | – | 10 | – | 12 |
| Closed, home gone, or merged | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| Send failed or no contact | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| Ran the full series | 11 | 2 | 9 | 2 |
| Still running or no outcome | 6 | 3 | 15 | 14 |
A side effect of testing, not a decision.
24 series, from code on main and the production database (read-only), 2026-09-07 to 2026-10-07. n/m = not measured.
| Series | Receives | Default schedule | Channel | Override in prod | Live at | Sends, 30 days (Camellia / Western Slope / Situs / test) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New lead never replied | prospect | +24h, +48h, +7d, +14d; ≥20h apart; 8am–9pm; 48h grace | text, email fallback | Camellia row identical to default (no-op) | Camellia, WS | 33 / 49 / 0 / 83 |
| Replied, then went quiet | prospect | same 4 steps from last reply; no 20h gap, no grace | text, email fallback | Camellia: 2 steps, +3d, +6d | Camellia, WS | 2 / 7 / 0 / 1 |
| Tour offered, not confirmed | prospect | +24h, +3d; dropped at 7-day hold | text | none | Camellia, WS | 0 |
| Tour reminders | prospect | 24h and 1h before; NO quiet hours | text | none | Camellia, WS | 22 / 29 / 0 / 16 |
| Weekend tour check-in | prospect, staff | Fri 10:30; start −2.5h; staff −1h | text | none | Camellia, WS | 0 |
| Application link after tour | prospect | tour start +60 min, once | email + text | link mode only | Camellia, WS | 12 / 0 / 0 / 0 |
| Toured, never applied | prospect | +1d, +3d, +7d from link | text | none set | Camellia, WS | 33 / 0 / 0 / 3 |
| Staff check-in after tour | tour host | +30 min after tour end | text | company switch: WS on, Camellia off | WS | ≤15 WS |
| Staff tour emails | property inbox | immediate | none | all | 18 / 26 / 0 / 113 | |
| Renewals | resident | Day 0 letter+text+call; +2d, +9d; −60/−30/−15d | text, MMS, voice | renewal policy | Camellia (1 of 2) | 32 / 0 / 0 / 61 |
| Past-due rent | resident | +21d, +28d, +31d; ≤3/mo; human approves | text | none | Camellia | 0 sent, 17 awaiting approval |
| Work-order question unanswered | resident → tech/manager | +12h nudge, +24h escalate | text | none | Camellia | 0 |
| Visit heads-up / check-in | handyman | window −10 / +10 min | text | none | Camellia | 0 |
| Rating after repair | resident | once | text | on unless off | Camellia | 11 |
| Vendor dispatch / quote chase | vendor | +1d, +3d | none | all w/ maintenance | 0 | |
| Vendor redial | vendor | +4h, +24h, +72h, cap 6; NO quiet hours | voice | none | approved only | 0 |
| Manager to-do reminders | PM | first notice only (24h×3 retired) | Camellia in; WS out (70 props) | Camellia | n/m | |
| Lease/transfer signed notice | accounting | once PDF fetched; retries forever | recipient lists | Camellia | 5 | |
| Unit claim to confirm | PM | +0, every 24h ×3 | text | none | all | n/m |
| Turnover charges nudge | PM | once +48h | text | 1 Camellia property | Camellia | n/m |
| Weekly stale-lead list | company | Wed 16:00Z | Camellia set | Camellia | n/m | |
| Weekly owner report | owner | Mon 15:30Z | 1 Camellia property | Camellia | n/m | |
| Daily leasing activity post | Slack | daily, edited in place | Slack | 2 Camellia, 1 WS | Camellia, WS | n/m |
| No-reply-15-min watchdog | our #alerts (+1 resend) | once, then page hourly | Slack, email | none | all | n/m |