Camellia Apartments · 120 units · prepared 2026-07-30

Occupied-unit market-rent drop — before / after

Per today's standup: bring occupied & notice units to the vacant-unit pricing JP already set, −$150 on every tier. Raise back at 93–95% occupancy. Source: live AppFolio rent roll, pulled read-only today.

Summary

100units changed (99 occupied-side + 207)

−$150every tier, uniform

−$15,000/mogross market-rent reduction

120/120units verified vs scheme (AppFolio + DDB)

$124,498lease-rent total — unchanged

$135,200building market-rent total (= sheet)

Targets by tier

Tier	Units changing	Market now	Target	Vacant comp	Basis
Studio	55	$1,150	$1,000	$1,000 (8 vacants)	matches JP's vacant pricing
1BR	34	$1,350	$1,200	$1,200 (5 vacants)	matches JP's vacant pricing (unit 109 already there)
2BR 666sf	4	$1,650	$1,500	$1,500 (1 vacant)	matches JP's vacant pricing · incl. 308
2BR 824sf	6	$1,750	$1,600	— none	Fede's call: uniform −$150, preserves $100 premium over 666sf · incl. 418

The only renewal offers that move

95 of 100 tenancies already pay exactly market, so the renewal formula max(currentRent, marketRent) pins their offer to current rent before and after. Every lease expiring in the next 120 days (28 of them) is unaffected. These three change:

Unit	Tier	Current rent	Lease ends	Offer before	Offer after
201	Studio	$1,000	12/31/2026	$1,150	$1,000 (flat renewal)
324	1BR	$1,200	06/30/2027	$1,350	$1,200 (flat renewal)
218	2BR 824sf	$1,600	06/30/2027	$1,750	$1,600 (flat renewal)

Held out: 418 — Brian Wieser (824sf, MTM, $0 lease rent) and 308 — Claire J. Bene (666sf, lease to 07/31/2027, $0 lease rent). Their offers are pure market rent (no current-rent floor), so the drop hits them hardest — confirm with Darrin, then add with one flag. Already-prepared/sent offers are snapshotted and never move retroactively.

What changes in reporting (PM/owner-visible)

Owner report: market rent $/sf drops $2.460 → $2.179 while in-place stays $2.403 — the report flips from ~parity to in-place $0.22/sf above market (expected; that is the point of the drop).
Rent-to-market: ~101% → ~113%; “Units below market” insight 3 → 0; ~95 units read “above market”.
Not visible to tenants or prospects today: every prospect-facing surface (Clara voice/email/tools, availability API, tours) lists vacant units only.
Deferred caveat: the 6 notice units (120, 224, 315, 422, 518, 606) flip to vacant within the 14-day price-drop window (5 move-outs 07/31, one 08/31) — Clara may then truthfully tell prospects “price dropped $1,150 → $1,000.” True and grounded; flagging so it isn't a surprise.
MTM totals move only where the offer moves (premium $100 rides on top).
PropFlow DB self-heals: the 15-minute occupancies sync mirrors AppFolio into Unit/Lease market rent — no manual DB write.

All 100 occupied + notice units

Unit	Tier	Status	Current rent	Market before	Market after	Δ	Renewal offer	Note
103	Studio	Current	$1,250	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
105	Studio	Current	$1,197	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
107	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
110	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
111	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
201	Studio	Current	$1,000	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	$1,150 → $1,000
203	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
205	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
207	Studio	Vacant-Rented	—	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—	included per Fede — matches the 107–607 stack standard
209	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
210	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
211	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
215	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
216	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
217	Studio	Current	$1,250	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
301	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
303	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
305	Studio	Current	$1,250	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
306	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
307	Studio	Current	$1,240	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
309	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
310	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
311	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
315	Studio	Notice-Unrented	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—	notice unit
317	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
401	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
405	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
406	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
407	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
409	Studio	Current	$1,240	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
410	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
411	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
415	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
416	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
417	Studio	Current	$1,191	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
501	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
503	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
505	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
507	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
509	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
510	Studio	Current	$1,160	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
511	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
515	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
516	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
517	Studio	Current	$1,250	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
601	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
603	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
605	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
606	Studio	Notice-Unrented	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—	notice unit
607	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
609	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
610	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
611	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
615	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
616	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
617	Studio	Current	$1,150	$1,150	$1,000	−$150	—
104	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
109	1BR	Current	$1,200	$1,200	$1,200	—	—	already at target
114	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
120	1BR	Notice-Unrented	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—	notice unit
122	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
124	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
202	1BR	Current	$1,450	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
204	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
212	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
220	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
222	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
224	1BR	Notice-Unrented	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—	notice unit
302	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
312	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
314	1BR	Current	$1,450	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
320	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
324	1BR	Current	$1,200	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	$1,350 → $1,200
402	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
404	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
412	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
420	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
422	1BR	Notice-Unrented	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—	notice unit
424	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
502	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
504	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
512	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
514	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
520	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
522	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
524	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
602	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
614	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
620	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
622	1BR	Current	$1,350	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
624	1BR	Current	$1,370	$1,350	$1,200	−$150	—
108	2BR 666sf	Current	$1,650	$1,650	$1,500	−$150	—
308	2BR 666sf	Current	—	$1,650	$1,500	−$150	—	included — Fede: market rent is independent of lease rent
508	2BR 666sf	Current	$1,650	$1,650	$1,500	−$150	—
608	2BR 666sf	Current	$1,650	$1,650	$1,500	−$150	—
118	2BR 824sf	Current	$1,750	$1,750	$1,600	−$150	—
218	2BR 824sf	Current	$1,600	$1,750	$1,600	−$150	$1,750 → $1,600
318	2BR 824sf	Current	$1,750	$1,750	$1,600	−$150	—
418	2BR 824sf	Current	—	$1,750	$1,600	−$150	—	included — Fede: market rent is independent of lease rent
518	2BR 824sf	Notice-Unrented	$1,750	$1,750	$1,600	−$150	—	notice unit
618	2BR 824sf	Current	$1,750	$1,750	$1,600	−$150	—

Execution & verification (post-run)

Path: new bulk route POST /api/set-unit-market-rents (runner PR #265, shipped same-day) — up to 25 units per browser session at ~1.5s/unit warm; canary + 4 sessions + a 6-unit fix pass instead of ~100 per-unit sessions. The serial per-unit path was retired mid-run.
Decisions applied after the projection above: 308 & 418 included (market rent is independent of lease rent); 207 (Vacant-Rented) included at the $1,000 stack standard.
Defect caught by the independent verifier: the bulk driver's plan column came from a beds-only tier map, landing the six 824sf units at $1,500 instead of the confirmed $1,600 for ~20 minutes. All six were re-set and re-verified at $1,600; no tenant impact was possible (renewal offers floor at current rent, and all six current rents are ≥ $1,600). The generator's tier map is now sqft-keyed.
Verification, all primary-source: fresh AppFolio pull — 120/120 units at expected values in both rent_roll and unit_directory; lease rents, tenant names, lease dates and statuses byte-identical (tenant-rent total $124,498 before and after); DynamoDB mirror converged 120/120; ADR-0096 price-change audit rows corroborate the change set; Sentry sweep over the full window found zero errors from the runner, the L4 client, or appfolio-sync.

Sources: AppFolio PLUS rent_roll + unit_directory (property 7) pulled 2026-07-30; prod DynamoDB cross-check (0 drift on all 120 units); renewal formula calculateProposedRent — src/lib/domain/leasing/renewal-rent.ts. Executed 2026-07-30 via the bulk L4 route (set-unit-market-rents, PR #265), canary-gated, idempotent; independently verified as above.